The FBS season is roughly a week away and every program is still a contender. However, if you looked at the various polls, it is the same old cast of characters.
Don’t get me wrong, next year’s national champion is probably somewhere in those top 25 lists. Missing from most of these lists are Group of Five teams. When the final top 25 was listed last year, four of those smaller schools were on the list. I don’t know how many Group of Five teams will be in this year’s final list, but there will be at least one.
Likewise, there are probably two or three teams in the preseason top 25 that won’t be on the list when the confetti of the NCAA championship settle. In fact, on average roughly 45% of the AP top 25 will finish unranked. The SEC, with five teams in the top 25, still gets plenty of love in this process. This despite playing second fiddle to the Big 10 the last three years.
The 2026 list is all the usual suspects: Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia, Notre Dame, etc. There has been some chirping that returning champ, Indiana, is still the red-headed stepchild, coming in at number 6. Cignetti, I am sure, would use that for motivational fodder but with a cream puff schedule featuring the likes of Howard, WKU, Northwestern and Rutgers in the first six games, he won’t need to. They should be undefeated when Ohio State rolls into Bloomington.
These polls should be taken with a block of salt. There have been some serious bombs. In 2007, #5 Michigan was beaten, at home, by then FCS team, Appalachian State in the upset to end all upsets. In 2012, the Lane led USC was ranked number one, only to finish unranked at 7-6. But don’t worry LSU fans, I am sure it will work out much better for Kiffin this year. It isn’t like the pollsters have learned. Just last year, Penn State opened at #2 and Clemson at #4. By the end of the season, these two teams struggled to stay above 500.
Thank god for extended playoffs
There was a time when these polls, however inaccurate, could dramatically affect a school’s post season. Thankfully, with an expanded playoff field, the overall impact of these polls has lessened. (The Fighting Irish would disagree). The days when the sweat of a portly, plaid-jacketed sportswriter carried more weight than wins on the field are nearly over.
Still, smart money says treat these polls as entertainment. Please, no wagering (smile).
BUT, if I were a betting man, I might note the following. Texas A&M is the patron saint of the overhyped, ending the season unranked five times in the last decade despite having started with a preseason top 25 ranking. Looking for surprise team to crack the top 25 once the actual hitting starts? Boise State is a good place to start. While they may lose their opener to Oregon, they should roll after that.
I also like Virginia Tech as a dark horse. James Franklin robbed Hampton Roads for years while at Penn State. His recruiting transition to Va Tech has been easier than scoring points in the Big 12. And if you really want to take a flyer, give NDSU a long look. The jump to the FBS can be rough, but the Bisons were often “Others receiving votes” while they were dominating the FCS.
I have never liked the polls, particularly preseason ones, but they do bring college football to a nice simmer. With the season kicking off next week, it’s time to get this thing to a full boil.
Bring on Game Day, tailgates, and the fight songs, I am ready for college football, and you should be too.
Tree