CFP vs FPI – Nothing to see here

I am likely done traveling for the year, at least at the FBS level. Christopher Newport, where I have taught for a few years, is undefeated. With a clinched a DIII playoff spot, I may find myself at one or two of their games.

But for this weekend, I will be watching from home. As I reviewed the schedule and the latest FBS rankings, I was all ready to shake my fists at the clouds and rail about the SEC bias in the committee selection process. But rather than coming to conclusions based on anecdotal evidence and limited sample size (as I do when I make my weekly game picks), I decided to look at the data.

Assuming my AI dump was reasonably accurate (which in itself is a bit risky), the committee process is not nearly as flawed or biased as it may seem. Alabama at three still seems to be a reach, but the data says it is not.

The chart compares ESPN’s analytic driven Football Power Index (FPI) rankings versus the College Football Playoff (CFP) qualitative ranking process. I have highlighted the greatest ranking differences between the indices. Green items reflect where the committee has ranked a team higher than what the analytics would say is justified. Red highlighting is the opposite. These are teams were the committee is factoring in some sort of qualitative judgment (IMO) to rank them lower then what the data supports. Some comments:

• Kentucky is getting a lot of love. It may be wrong, but this is a self-correcting problem. If the Wildcats run the gauntlet of Florida, at Missouri, and Louisville with three wins, they should be in. Okay, maybe Florida is not too daunting. Mizzou and Louisville, though, are both quality opponents.
• Louisville not being ranked by the CFP is a bit unfair. Beating Kentucky on the road may be a springboard for the Cardinals.
• The Bruins are also getting a lot of help. Regardless of strength of schedule, if you go undefeated in a Power Four conference you deserve a top 12 ranking.
• Hard to feel bad for Ohio State, Houston, Oregon and LSU. All have losses that clearly have put them in their current position.
• No whining about Boise getting a bid. Until the Power 4 schools are willing to play the likes of Boise State, App State, and James Madison on the road, the best Group of Six team deserves a chance the big boys won’t give them.

Thankfully, next year the playoff goes to twenty-four. I would have preferred the top twenty but this is fine. Assuming the Committee applies the same diligence in the future, a team on the outside of the top twenty-five looking in has no room to complain.

Jax State – Life is like a box of chocolates

I was thrilled when the boys in the Nine O’clock club agreed to go to Jacksonville State for this year’s game. I was sure that I was going to see this game alone in an empty stadium rooting for the Gamecocks to cover a large spread against the claw-less Bearkats of Sam Houston State.

The weekend had two things going for it. One, was just having a chance to hang with some great guys for the ninth year in a row. We have built some side-splitting memories over the years, and this was more of the same. The other thing going for this weekend was seeing the Jax State Band. The Marching Southerners simply do not disappoint. Their reputation as one of the best bands is justified.

However, Jax State impressed in a number of other areas as well. I will share the details in the full review in a week or so. Suffice it to say, you never know what you are going to get when you go to a college football game.