Some very ill-informed analysis
When I went to make my picks for the quarter final FBS playoffs, it was disappointing to note that I had seen none of the remaining teams live this year. Not that it would make a difference in my prediction success. My bets this year tended to be on teams I saw and it only made my forecasts worst. Given that my analysis isn’t worth the pixels it is displayed on, I have evaluated the teams both on the team performance and the home game stadium experience. At least in that area, I am reasonably informed, having been to all of these sites. And remember, this is for entertainment purposes. I do not recommend wagering my picks for obvious reasons.
I like Indiana in this one. The Hoosiers are the real deal. However, I think Bama has a good chance for the upset for two reasons. The Indiana defensive line has played really well this year, but they are undersized. It could be a problem late in the game. The other item is that Mendoza has not played his best against top competition. He has not been bad, but there have been mistakes. If Bama sticks with the running game and capitalizes on Hoosier mistakes, an upset is possible.
As for the game day experience, hands down IU is a better time. That may surprise SEC folks, but the Alabama game day experience is only average. Perhaps it was because for years the only highlight to going to a game in Bloomington was the tailgating. The Hoosiers have honed thier pre-game experience to top tier status.
Texas Tech is like the new Oregon with all the money they have had flowing in for NIL. The question mark here is the overall quality of the Big 12. I think the Ducks are more battle tested in a tougher conference and that is enough. I don’t love this game for wagering. If you must, take Oregon.
As for the game day experience, the Red Raiders get a slight edge here. However, it is almost a pick em’ now that the Texas Tech has banned the tortilla toss. I had a good time at Oregon, but their fans do have a high douche bag reputation. They were very nice to me, but I have heard from multiple west coast rivals that there’s nothing worse than an Oregon alum. Douchery for Duck fans seems to be very on brand.
I like the Buckeyes here. It was nice to see Miami get the win for the ACC against A&M, but the winning stops on New Year’s Eve. The Canes defense will keep them in it for the three quarters and then Ohio State will pull away. This is a lock.
When it comes to the game day experience, I also give it to the Buckeyes. Miami plays at a pro stadium and when we were there, it was half full. I really didn’t tailgate in either spot, but based on observation alone, Ohio State is better. Plus, I had a good time with Buckeye fans. Not so much at Miami.
I like Georgia in this one, primarily because at some point, the absence of Lane Kiffin will impact Ole Miss. Plus when Kirby Smart has lots of time to prepare for a game, he does pretty well. However, the first time these two met it was a close one. So, it’s another game that I don’t love.
From a tailgating perspective, I also have the Dawg experience over the Grove in what most folks would consider an upset. The Grove is fairly unique experience, and is not without merit. However, as I have said in the past you really have to know someone. I had a connection for my tailgating at both locations and had a better time in Athens. The in-stadium experience is also better at Georgia.
Celebrate safe tonight with some moderation because there is a lot to watch on New Year’s Day. Remember it is hard to soar with the eagles when you hoot with the owls.
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